As mentions of “Strawberry Fields,” strawberry farms, strawberry shortcake, and strawberry blonde suggest, the popular fruit has long been a part of the public consciousness, deeply embedded in our understand of Beatles music, warm summer days, and childhood joys. But worrying new climate reports predict a dramatic reduction of strawberry crops in the years to come, with relevant implications for consumers, marketers, and retailers.

A recent study from the University of Waterloo investigated the impact of temperature abnormalities on strawberry yields, and the result were deeply concerning. Using a model that predicts the probability of losing crops, the researchers concluded that a rise in temperature of just 3 degrees Fahrenheit could reduce strawberry supply by as much as 40 percent, which in turn would imply both higher prices and scarcity. As the scientists made clear, the strawberry supply is especially susceptible to loss, due to the fragile nature of the fruit and its short shelf life.

But changes in weather have implications for all produce, regardless of type. Fruit is one of the most profitable exports that the United States has; the 2022 market for strawberries alone was valued at more than $3 billion. Farmers in California would be particularly affected by the threats to their crops due to changing weather patterns; the state is responsible for more than 80 percent of the country’s food production and also is a significant exporter to Canadian markets.

The long-term solution to this and other global warming problems must focus on large-scale efforts to reduce average temperatures. In the meantime though, scientists suggest that sustainable farming practices might help reduce disruptions in the food supply in the more immediate term. For example, drip irrigation adds minimal amounts of water to the soil at the root level and has proven successful in protecting crops, as well as conserving water. Likewise, changing growing season schedules to avoid heat waves and erecting large shade structures may protect crops from extreme heat.

Implementing these changes will require sizeable upfront investments, something that smaller growers are ill-prepared to afford. As the climate crisis accelerates though, average temperatures continue to increase at a worryingly rapid speed, meaning that ignoring the problem is not an option either.

Discussion Questions

1. Which stage in the food supply chain is primarily responsible for addressing this crisis? How might retailers support the efforts of their suppliers, to prevent disruptions to their supply?
2. How might growers use sustainable farming practices to address the impact of climate change?

Sources: Fakhri Karray, Kumaraswamy Ponnambalam, and Poornima Unnikrishnam, “Influence of Regional Temperature Anomalies on Strawberry Yield: A Study Using Multivariate Copula Analysis,” MDPI, April 23, 2024; “Researchers Predict Fewer, Pricier Strawberries as Temperatures Warm,” University of Waterloo, July 17, 2024; Susan Elizabeth Turek, “Scientists Warn Grocery Shelves May Soon be Missing Pantry-Staple Food Because of Poor Crop Conditions: ‘Emphasizing the Importance of Sustainable Farming’,” Yahoo News, August 22, 2024