Lots of uncontrollable elements influence retail sales; lately, we’ve been focused largely on the unpredictable and vast effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. But other factors, while still uncontrollable, exert their varying effects nearly every year, such that retailers cannot forget to account for them when predicting their sales performance.

In the Tampa Bay region for example, weather is a critical consideration. When the La Niña weather phenomenon arises during a particular year—which means that the jet stream shifts to the north—the northern United States experiences a colder winter, whereas the southern states encounter warmer, drier climates. Although La Niña arose in 2020, it appears more prominent for 2021, which leads to several related phenomena.

For example, hurricanes become a bit less likely. In 2021, Florida was exposed to substantially fewer big storms, compared with most annual counts over the past decade or so. In turn, people did not feel driven to spend as much on storm supplies like generators, emergency kits, or hurricane shutters. Such supplies can quickly get expensive, especially when the region is threatened by multiple storms, right in a row. This simple shift left local residents with more disposable income available for other types of purchases.

Because La Niña tends to drive temperatures up, Tampa Bay residents also can keep using their pools or engaging in outdoor activities, well into the winter months. In turn, they continue buying things like pool floats and bicycles, whereas such purchases essentially disappear in the north, where consumers instead are stocking up on parkas and warm boots. But once Floridians become accustomed to warm settings, even a temporary, minor dip in temperatures can drive a near buying frenzy for sweaters, as retailers noted during a week in which several days showed temperatures below the average for the region.

Those appealing temperatures also draw more tourists, including the region’s regular visitors colloquially known as snowbirds. Whereas coronavirus restrictions and fears kept many people at home in 2020, they increasingly have been resuming their travel habits. These older, often retired adults spend several winter months in the warm climates, prompting their purchases of daily household supplies, décor to decorate their Florida condo, and new bathing suits—as well as services specific to this generational cohort, such as health care.

Thus, even if La Niña is not fully predictable, by reflecting on its diverse influences on other weather phenomena, buying trends, and consumer behaviors in previous years, retailers can establish somewhat improved predictions of what its effects will be on their sales in the current season.

Discussion Question:

1. What implications does a weather phenomenon like La Niña have for retailers in other regions in the United States? For example, if it leads to colder winters in the north, how should retailers respond?

Source: Bernadette Berdychowski, “How Tampa Bay Holiday Sales Could Get a Boost from the Weather,” Tampa Bay Times, November 16, 2021